According to the inventory of the existing capacity and the capacity under construction of domestic PBAT, it is feared that the stock will be out of stock until 2022.
Under the influence of the nationwide implementation of the plastic limit law, the domestic market demand of PBAT has been surging since December 2020, and the supply of PBAT has fallen short of the demand, and the number of new entrants has increased.
By the end of 2020, the domestic production capacity of PBAT type polyester is 317,000 tons.
Four of them have stable supply, and 90% of their PBAT material products are exported to foreign countries, grabbing foreign market share with BASF and Italy's Novoment.
According to incomplete statistics, the current domestic projects under construction and planned construction reach 4.633 million tons, and it is expected that 370,000 tons of new production capacity will be put on the market in 2021. The total domestic production capacity will reach 687,000 tons, and the output will be about 400,000 tons, with a gap of 100,000 tons.
Previously, the price of PBAT polyester products was relatively stable due to the limitation of market size. The market price of PBS was stable at about 32,000 yuan/ton for a long time, and the price of PBAT was about 22,000 yuan/ton.
Due to the rapid rise of raw material prices in the second half of 2020, driving the cost of PBAT to rise by nearly 50%, and in December 2020, Hainan, January 1, the start of the national market, PBAT prices usher in a greater increase, up about 1,500 yuan compared with the middle of the year.
According to the policy issued by 31 provinces and cities to cover the number of people calculated, the total demand for degradable film bags in the country is about 850,000 tons.
According to the addition amount of 65% PBAT, the production of PBAT also needs to reach 500,000 tons, and the estimated PBAT production of 400,000 tons in 2021 is obviously unable to meet the demand.
Therefore, the new capacity and the existing capacity can not meet the market demand of PBAT degradable membrane bag, so by 2022, PBAT will be in short supply, I am afraid!